Currently, neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions prevail in the Pacific,this is referred to as ENSO-neutral conditions. Continued ENSO-neutral conditions or a weak La Niña is expected over the period November 2016 to February 2017. Thereafter, ENSO-neutral conditions are favoured.

  • Below normal rainfall is forecast for the central Pacific (moderate-high confidence), and normal or above normal rainfall is possible for the islands in the northwest tropical Pacific and the region from Papua New Guinea southeast to the southern Cook Islands (moderate confidence).
  • Below normal (cooler) temperature is predicted for the central eastern Pacific along the equator, elsewhere warmer temperatures are likely.

Republic of Korea-Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Project (ROK-PI CLIPS) - Rainfall forecast for the October to December 2016 period.

  • Below Normal Rainfall forecast for: Marshall Islands, Kiribati, Tuvalu and Nauru
  • Normal Rainfall forecast for: Southern Cooks, Niue, Tokelau, Tonga, Fiji, Vanuatu and Solomon Islands.
  • Above Rainfall forecast for: Samoa, Papua New Guinea, Palau, Northern Cooks and Federated States of Micronesia.
  • The following forecast was generated from the SPREP’s Online Climate Prediction Tool “Climate ToolKit for the Pacific” or CLIKP http://clikp.sprep.org/ .
  • Data from nine Global Dynamic models available in the CLIKP prediction system were used in the calculations.

Figure 1: Rainfall forecast for the October to December 2016 period


Figure 1: Air temperature forecast for the October to December 2016 period