In September 2016 the Pacific Ocean cooled to weak La Nina thresholds, however the atmospheric variables, such as the upper level winds and southern oscillation index, we monitor for ENSO evolution does not support weak La Nina but rather remain near average or Neutral territory that is not El Nino nor La Nina.
Republic of Korea-Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Project (ROK-PI CLIPS)
Rainfall forecast for the September to November 2016 period.
The following forecast was generated from the SPREP Online Climate Prediction Tool “Climate Toolkit for the Pacific” or CLIKP http://clikp.sprep.org/ . Data from nine Global Dynamic models available in the CLIKP prediction system was used in the calculations.
Below Normal Rainfall forecast for: Marshall Islands, Kiribati and Nauru
Normal Rainfall forecast for: Micronesia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Niue and Southern Cooks
Above Rainfall forecast for: Samoa, Papua New Guinea, Palau, Northern Cooks and New Caledonia.