The Seasonal Prediction of Extreme Ocean Temperatures / Coral Bleaching Tool provides seasonal forecasts of ocean temperature and coral bleaching risk. These forecasts are generated using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA).

Available forecasts include sea surface temperature, hotspots and degree heating months. Both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts are available. More information about the Tool and how to use it can be found on the project page Seasonal Prediction of Extreme Ocean Temperatures/Coral Bleaching.

This information is critical to partner countries in planning coastal development and safeguarding agricultural, marine and water resources. Under climate change, ocean temperatures and the frequency of mass coral bleaching events are predicted to increase, highlighting the need for improved management of coral reefs of the Pacific Island nations and East Timor. The project aims to develop enhanced prototype seasonal coral bleaching risk prediction products for the Western Pacific, an improved understanding of climate drivers of extreme ocean temperatures, and to conduct relevant in-country training.

  • Relationship to other tools: The Seasonal Prediction of Extreme Ocean Temperatures / Coral Bleaching Tool is linked to the Seasonal Prediction of Sea Level Anomalies in the Western Pacific tool. Forecast outlooks for both tools are generated via the POAMA seasonal prediction model. This tool is accessible to interested users who apply to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to use the tool. Meteorological agencies from PACCSAP partner countries in the Pacific are the primary users of this tool.
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