• The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has moved to La Niña, indicating La Niña is established in the tropical Pacific. All surveyed international climate models indicate this La Niña will persist until at least January 2021.
  • The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was weaker than normal and displaced north of its normal position in the western Pacific. However, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was displaced southwest of normal with some enhancement over PNG and Solomon Islands.
  • The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak or indiscernible, but may increase in strength as it moves from the Maritime Continent into the Western Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea level in September was higher than normal for most countries in the region, with positive anomalies (15-25cm) situated around Palau, FSM, RMI and far north of eastern Kiribati, while smaller patches of +15 to +20cm anomalies occurred around the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga and Niue. Sea level in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific was lower in September than August, although anomalies remained positive.
  • Coral bleaching is on Alert Level 2 in the western part of FSM, while areas of Alert Level 1 exists around FSM and eastern Palau. The Coral Bleaching Outlook shows the region of Alert Level 2 expanding over much of FSM, with Alert 1 in remainder of FSM, Palau and northern PNG. The rest of northern PNG, the Solomon Islands, RMI, Nauru, southern Tuvalu, northern Fiji and Samoa are on Warning or Watch alert, while remaining south west Pacific countries are rated as 'no stress'.
  • For October to December, the dynamical models (as well as SCOPIC) agree on above normal rainfall for Palau, southern Marshall Islands, most parts of PNG, Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga and southern Cook Islands. The models also agree on below normal rainfall eastern FSM, northern Marshall Islands, Nauru, Kiribati, northern Tuvalu and northern Cook Islands.


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