Strong El Niño condition continued during January 2016; and is likely to persist for another few months. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies still exceed +2°C in the central and eastern Pacific, but have weakened from the peak values in November-December 2015. The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was displaced towards the Equator in the central and eastern Pacific, and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was shifted to the north and east of normal, both signals being consistent with El Niño.
Dynamical model forecasts are in agreement that the El Niño conditions will persist for the February – April 2016 period (96% chance), and the SPCZ is forecast to be again displaced north and east of its normal position, leading to many island groups in the southwest Pacific expected to experience drier than normal conditions over the forecast period (February – April 2016). There is moderate to high confidence in the rainfall forecast for February to April as shown in the map below. This forecast translates to a continuation of existing sectoral impacts recorded and expressed in many parts of the Pacific region.
Seasonal Rainfall Anomaly Forecast for the Pacific– February to April 2016.
Source: http://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/icu
For more information contact Sunny Seuseu, Climate Prediction Services Coordinator at [email protected]